Seminar 27Draw & carnival games

Workbook B

Draw odds

Enter the cards you are keeping and any cards you know are gone. The calculator tries every unseen card, counts the ones that complete your hand, and gives the exact chance with one, two or three draws to come.

1What the numbers assume

Every figure below comes from one script, tools/odds.js, kept with the site. Two conventions appear, and each table says which: 47 unseen counts your discard as gone; 48 unseen does not. For a pat hand against a draw, both hands are known, leaving 43.

2Deuce-to-seven

Computed
One-card draws to an eight or better, 47 unseen
KeepOuts1 left2 left3 left
2-3-4-7 · 2-3-5-7 · 2-3-4-8 · 2-3-7-81225.5%45.0%59.6%
2-3-4-7 all one suit919.1%35.0%48.0%
2-3-4-5 · 2-4-5-6 · 3-4-5-7817.0%31.5%43.6%
4-5-6-748.5%16.5%23.9%
2-3-4-7, one draw, by target, 47 unseen
Finish withOutsChance
A seven817.0%
An eight or better1225.5%
A ten or better2042.6%
A jack or better2451.1%
Pat hand against one 2-3-4-7 draw: how often the pat hand holds up, 43 unseen
Pat handDraw's outs1 left2 left3 left
8-7-6-4-21076.7%58.5%44.2%
9-7-5-4-31468.2%46.0%30.7%
9-8-6-4-21369.8%48.2%32.9%
10-8-6-4-21760.5%36.0%21.1%
J-8-6-4-22151.2%25.6%12.5%
Q-8-6-4-22541.9%16.9%6.6%
Dealt pat, of 2,598,960 deals
DealtHandsShare
A seven4,0800.16%
An eight or better18,3600.71%
A nine or better53,0402.04%
A ten or better123,4204.75%

3Ace-to-five

Computed
A-2-3-4, one-card draw, 47 unseen
Finish withOuts1 left2 left3 left
The wheel48.5%16.5%23.9%
A six or better817.0%31.5%43.6%
A seven or better1225.5%45.0%59.6%
An eight or better1634.0%57.0%72.3%
Pat hand against one A-2-3-4 draw: how often the pat hand holds up, 43 unseen
Pat handDraw's outs1 left2 left3 left
7-6-5-3-2979.1%62.1%48.5%
8-6-5-3-21369.8%48.2%32.9%
9-6-5-3-21760.5%36.0%21.1%
10-6-5-3-22151.2%25.6%12.5%
J-6-5-3-22541.9%16.9%6.6%
Dealt pat, of 2,598,960 deals
DealtHandsShare
The wheel1,0240.04%
A six or better6,1440.24%
A seven or better21,5040.83%
An eight or better57,3442.21%

4Badugi

Computed
Three-card hand drawing one, 48 unseen (four-card game, discard counted)
KeepToOuts1 left2 left3 left
Any three cards of three suits and ranksAny badugi1020.8%37.7%51.2%
Three cards, all seven or lowerEight-high or better510.4%19.9%28.6%
Three cards, all six or lowerSeven-high or better48.3%16.1%23.4%
The four cards you are dealt, of 270,725 deals
Best handHandsShare
A badugi17,1606.34%
Three cards154,44057.05%
Two cards96,25235.55%
One card2,8731.06%

5The split games

Computed
One-card draws, 47 unseen
Game and handToOuts1 left2 left3 left
Badeucey, 2-3-4-7 in three suitsA badugi1123.4%41.7%56.0%
Badeucey, same handAn eight low or better1225.5%45.0%59.6%
Badeucey, same handBoth at once36.4%12.5%18.3%
Badacey, A-2-3-5 in three suitsBoth at once36.4%12.5%18.3%
Archie, 3-4-5-6A qualifying low1634.0%57.0%72.3%
Archie, 3-4-5-6A straight, both ways817.0%31.5%43.6%
Archie, A-2-3-4The wheel, both ways48.5%16.5%23.9%

6Five-card draw

The table of what each draw does to a pair, two pair, three of a kind and the straight and flush draws is on the five-card draw page.

7The figures quoted with the solver work

Computed

Two sets of exact odds are quoted alongside our solver baselines. Our script reproduces both: 2-3-4-7 makes an eight or better 25.0%, 44.1% and 58.7% of the time with one, two and three draws (12 outs, 48 unseen), and a pat 9-8-6-4-2 beats that draw 69.8%, 48.2% and 32.9% of the time (13 outs, 43 unseen). See the baselines page.