Seminar 27Draw & carnival games

Handout 01 · Limit · Pot-limit variant noted

Deuce-to-seven triple draw

Five cards, three chances to change them, and the worst conventional poker hand wins. The game this site is named for.

Cards
Five, all face down
Draws
Three
Betting
Fixed limit, four rounds
Players
Up to six W
Best hand
7-5-4-3-2, not all one suit
Also known as
Kansas City lowball, "triple draw"

1How it is dealt and bet

The game uses a button and two blinds. Each player gets five cards face down, and there is a round of betting at the small bet. Then comes the first draw: in turn, each player still in the hand throws away any number of cards from none to five and receives the same number of new ones. Standing with all five is called standing pat. Another round at the small bet follows. The second draw is followed by a round at the big bet, the third draw by a last round at the big bet, and then the hands are shown. B W

So there are four betting rounds and three draws, and the bet doubles halfway through. The first round starts to the left of the big blind. Every later round, and every draw, starts with the first player still in the hand to the left of the button, so the button draws and bets last. A2

Procedure worth knowing

2Hand ranking

Take the ordinary poker ranking and turn it upside down: the hand that would lose at hold'em wins here. Three details catch everyone who arrives from hold'em. W R

  1. The ace is high, and only high. A-5-4-3-2 is not a wheel and not a straight. It is an ace-high hand, and it loses to any king-high.
  2. Straights count against you. 7-6-5-4-3 is a straight, so it loses to every hand with no pair.
  3. Flushes count against you. 7-5-4-3-2 all in one suit is a flush, which is worse still.

Hands with no pair are read from the top card down, and the first difference decides. An "eight-six" is any 8-6-x-x-x. A hand with small cards under its top card is smooth; one with big cards under it is rough. Suits never break a tie.

Computed

There are only 4 different seven lows (7-5-4-3-2, 7-6-4-3-2, 7-6-5-3-2, 7-6-5-4-2) and 14 different eight lows: the 18 best hands in the game. You are dealt a pat eight or better 0.71% of the time, a pat nine or better 2.04%, and a pat ten or better 4.75%. Nearly every good hand is drawn to, not dealt.

3The draws, step by step

Follow one hand. You are dealt 2♠3♥4♦7♣K♠. Four of the five cards belong to the best hand in the game, so you throw away the king and draw one.

Computed

With your king counted as gone, 47 cards are unseen. A five or a six (8 cards) gives you a seven low. An eight (4 more) gives you 8-7-4-3-2. That is 12 cards out of 47.

You hold 2-3-4-7 and draw oneCards that hit1 draw left2 left3 left
Make a seven8 of 4717.0%31.5%43.6%
Make an eight or better12 of 4725.5%45.0%59.6%

These figures count your own discard as a dead card. The solver's own table further down leaves the discard out (48 unseen) and gets 25.0%, 44.1% and 58.7%. Both are exact; they answer slightly different questions.

Each time you miss, you throw the new card away and draw again, and each draw costs a bet to reach. By the third draw the bets are double size, so a draw that was cheap at the start is expensive at the end. That is the whole tension of the game: you have about a three-in-five chance to make an eight from the best one-card draw with all three draws to come, and only one in four on the last one.

Not all one-card draws are equal

Computed
One-card draws: cards that make an eight or better, of 47 unseen
DrawHits1 left2 left3 leftWhy
2-3-4-7, 2-3-5-7, 2-3-4-8, 2-3-7-81225.5%45.0%59.6%Three ranks complete it
2-3-4-7 all one suit919.1%35.0%48.0%Three of your outs make a flush
2-3-4-5817.0%31.5%43.6%The six makes a straight; the ace is high
2-4-5-6817.0%31.5%43.6%The three makes a straight
3-4-5-7 (no deuce)817.0%31.5%43.6%The six makes a straight
4-5-6-748.5%16.5%23.9%Only a deuce helps: the 3 and the 8 both make straights

4Starting hands

Published
Computed

The table in section 3 is the arithmetic behind the "2-3-4-5 is overrated" advice: it has 8 cards that make an eight or better, where 2-3-4-7 has 12.

Solver baseline · simplified game

Share of hands raised when everyone before you has folded, six-handed. These come from heads-up proxy solves, not from a true six-player solve, and the solver deals in hand classes with no card removal between the two hands. Read them as a first sketch. How to read these numbers.

SeatUTGHJCOBTNSB
Raises first in21%22%30%43%70%

Heads-up, the solver's button raises about 85% of hands. We suspect that is too wide, because the simplified game ignores card removal. Facing that raise, its big blind folds 16%, calls 62% and re-raises 22%.

5The key decision on each draw

Once you have a made hand, every draw asks the same question: stand pat, or break it and draw to something better? The answer depends on how many draws are left and on what the other player's draws have told you.

Computed

How often a pat hand is still best at the showdown against one opponent drawing one card to 2-3-4-7. This is a raw chance of holding up, not a rule for what to do: it ignores the betting and assumes the opponent keeps drawing.

Your pat handHis outs1 draw left2 left3 left
8-7-6-4-210 of 4376.7%58.5%44.2%
9-7-5-4-314 of 4368.2%46.0%30.7%
9-8-6-4-213 of 4369.8%48.2%32.9%
10-8-6-4-217 of 4360.5%36.0%21.1%
J-8-6-4-221 of 4351.2%25.6%12.5%
Q-8-6-4-225 of 4341.9%16.9%6.6%

The 9-8-6-4-2 row matches the exact odds quoted with the solver work (69.8%, 48.2%, 32.9%). Note the 9-7-5-4-3 row: it is a "better" nine, yet it holds up slightly less often here, because it blocks only one of the cards the draw needs (a five), where 9-8-6-4-2 blocks two (a six and an eight).

Published
Solver baseline · simplified game

The pattern is the useful part: the same nine is a keep or a break depending on whether the other player's line says "made hand".

6Common mistakes

7The pot-limit version

The WSOP's dealer's-choice list carries pot-limit 2-7 triple draw as a separate game: the same cards and ranking, with pot-limit betting in place of fixed limit. N1 N2 None of the odds change. None of the solver baselines on this page apply to it; they are for the limit game.

2-7 triple draw: cheat sheet

Seminar 27 · Handout 01 · limit, five cards, three draws

The order of play

Deal 5 → bet (small) → draw → bet (small) → draw → bet (big) → draw → bet (big) → showdown.

Ranking in one breath

Odds to carry

One-card drawHits/471 left2 left3 left
2-3-4-7 to an 8 or better1225.5%45.0%59.6%
2-3-4-7 to a 7817.0%31.5%43.6%
2-3-4-5 to an 8 or better817.0%31.5%43.6%
4-5-6-7 to an 8 or better48.5%16.5%23.9%
Pat hand vs one 2-3-4-7 draw1 left2 left3 left
8-7 holds up76.7%58.5%44.2%
9-8 holds up69.8%48.2%32.9%
10-8 holds up60.5%36.0%21.1%
J-8 holds up51.2%25.6%12.5%

Published rules of thumb

Solver baseline (simplified heads-up game, not a full solution)

First-in raise share six-handed: UTG 21 · HJ 22 · CO 30 · BTN 43 · SB 70 (%). Pat 7s and 8s stay. A rough 9 breaks against "drew one, bet, then pat".

seminar27.com · Odds computed by the site's own script. Rules: WSOP live-action rules and the BARGE rulebook. For education.